Assessing the Pros and Cons of Betting on Underdogs

Introduction

Betting on underdogs is a popular strategy in sports betting, offering both high risks and potentially high rewards. This article explores the benefits and drawbacks of betting on underdog teams or players, providing insights for both novice and experienced bettors. We'll also touch on the context of sports betting in the Philippines and how Jiligames can enhance your betting experience.

What is Underdog Betting?

Underdog betting is a strategy in sports and various betting markets where bettors place wagers on the competitor, team, or participant that is least likely to win, as determined by the odds set by bookmakers. This competitor is referred to as the "underdog.”

Pros of Betting on the Underdog

Betting on the underdog offers unique advantages, both in terms of potential returns and the local sports culture. Here are some key points:

Higher Payouts

• Big Wins with Small Bets: The higher odds on underdogs mean that Filipino bettors can achieve substantial payouts even with smaller wagers. This is particularly appealing in a market where bettors may have limited disposable income.
• Value for Money: Finding undervalued underdogs allows for better value bets, maximizing returns on investment.

Market Inefficiencies

• Overhyped Favorites: In the Philippines, popular sports like basketball, particularly the PBA (Philippine Basketball Association), often have favorites that are overhyped. Public sentiment can inflate the odds on these teams, creating opportunities for underdog betting.
• Insightful Local Knowledge: Local bettors often have deeper insights into teams and players, allowing them to identify undervalued underdogs better than international bookmakers.

Lower Risk, Higher Reward

• Smaller Stakes: Filipino bettors can place smaller bets on underdogs, reducing their financial risk while still enjoying the possibility of significant returns.
• Accessible Betting: With the rise of online betting platforms in the Philippines, placing small, strategic bets on underdogs has become easier and more convenient.

Emotional and Psychological Benefits

• Cultural Affinity for Underdogs: Filipinos naturally resonate with the underdog story, often rooting for the less favored team. This cultural affinity can make underdog betting more enjoyable and emotionally satisfying.
• Community Spirit: Betting on local underdogs can foster a sense of community and shared excitement, particularly in regional sports leagues and local tournaments.

Diversification of Betting Strategy

• Balancing Bets: Including underdog bets can help Filipino bettors balance their betting portfolio, spreading risk across different types of wagers.
• Long-Term Profits: Consistently finding value in underdog bets can contribute to a successful long-term betting strategy, particularly in a diverse sports betting market.

Examples in the Philippine Sports Scene

• PBA: The PBA often features surprise victories from underdog teams, providing ample opportunities for bettors. For example, teams with less star power can upset more established teams, leading to big payouts for those who bet on the underdog.
• Collegiate Leagues: In leagues like the UAAP (University Athletic Association of the Philippines) and NCAA (National Collegiate Athletic Association), underdog teams frequently pull off upsets, creating lucrative betting opportunities.
• Boxing and Combat Sports: The Philippines has a rich history in boxing, and local underdog fighters often rise to prominence. Betting on these fighters can yield high returns, as was the case with Manny Pacquiao in his early career.

Cons of Betting on Underdogs

While betting on the underdog can offer higher payouts and exciting opportunities, there are also several drawbacks, especially within the Philippine context. Here are some key cons to consider:

Lower Probability of Winning

• Inherent Risk: By definition, underdogs are less likely to win. This means that, despite the potential for higher payouts, the chances of actually winning the bet are lower.
• Frequent Losses: Consistent betting on underdogs can lead to frequent losses, which can be discouraging and financially draining over time.

Emotional and Psychological Impact

• Disappointment: Frequent losses can lead to disappointment and frustration, particularly for bettors who are emotionally invested in the outcome.
• Chasing Losses: Bettors may fall into the trap of chasing losses, placing more bets in an attempt to recoup their losses, which can lead to more significant financial problems.

Financial Implications

• Potential for Large Losses: While smaller stakes can mitigate some risk, the cumulative effect of continuous losses can still be substantial, especially for those with limited disposable income.
• Poor Money Management: Without proper money management strategies, bettors can quickly deplete their betting funds, leading to financial stress.

Market Limitations

• Limited Information: In the Philippine betting market, there might be less comprehensive information and analysis available for underdog teams or players, making it harder to make informed bets.
• Bias in Odds: Local bookmakers might not always accurately reflect the true odds for underdogs, potentially skewing the risk/reward balance.

Cultural and Social Factors

• Stigma: Betting on underdogs might be seen as a risky or less respectable strategy by some within the local community, leading to social stigma.
• Pressure to Conform: There might be pressure to bet on favorites, especially in highly popular sports like basketball, where community support for top teams is strong.

Example-Specific Challenges

• PBA Dynamics: In the PBA, stronger teams with more resources and star players often dominate, making it harder for underdogs to secure victories.
• Collegiate Sports: In leagues like the UAAP and NCAA, disparities in funding, training facilities, and talent levels can make underdog victories less frequent and more unpredictable.
• Combat Sports: While underdog stories are celebrated, the physical and technical superiority of favored fighters often prevails, reducing the success rate of betting on underdogs.

Inconsistent Outcomes

• Volatility: Underdog bets can be highly volatile, leading to inconsistent outcomes that can be hard to predict. This volatility can make it challenging to develop a consistent, profitable betting strategy.
• Dependence on Upsets: Success in underdog betting heavily relies on upsets, which are inherently unpredictable and rare events.

How to Calculate Underdog Odds in Betting

Calculating underdog odds in betting helps you understand the potential payout and the implied probability of an underdog winning. Here’s a step-by-step guide on how to calculate and interpret these odds:

Types of Odds Formats

1. Decimal Odds
2. Fractional Odds
3. Moneyline Odds

Calculating Potential Payouts

1. Decimal Odds

• Formula: Potential Payout = Stake × Decimal Odds
• Example: If the underdog has odds of 3.50 and you bet PHP 100, the potential payout is PHP 350.
• Calculation: 100 × 3.50 = 350
• Profit: PHP 350 - PHP 100 (stake) = PHP 250

2. Fractional Odds

• Formula: Potential Payout = Stake × (Numerator/Denominator) + Stake
• Example: If the underdog has fractional odds of 5/2 and you bet PHP 100, the potential payout is PHP 350.
• Calculation: 100 × (5/2) + 100 = 350
• Profit: PHP 350 - PHP 100 (stake) = PHP 250

3. Moneyline Odds

• Positive Moneyline (Underdog): Indicates how much profit you make on a PHP 100 bet.
• Formula: Potential Payout = Stake × (Moneyline Odds / 100) + Stake
• Example: If the underdog has +250 odds and you bet PHP 100, the potential payout is PHP 350.
• Calculation: 100 × (250/100) + 100 = 350
• Profit: PHP 350 - PHP 100 (stake) = PHP 250

Calculating Implied Probability

Implied probability helps you understand the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds provided.

1. Decimal Odds

• Formula: Implied Probability (%) = (1 / Decimal Odds) × 100
• Example: If the underdog has odds of 3.50, the implied probability is approximately 28.57%.
• Calculation: (1 / 3.50) × 100 = 28.57%

2. Fractional Odds

• Formula: Implied Probability (%) = (Denominator / (Numerator + Denominator)) × 100
• Example: If the underdog has fractional odds of 5/2, the implied probability is approximately 28.57%.
• Calculation: (2 / (5 + 2)) × 100 = 28.57%

3. Moneyline Odds

• Formula: Implied Probability (%) = 100 / (Moneyline Odds + 100)
• Example: If the underdog has +250 odds, the implied probability is approximately 28.57%.
• Calculation: 100 / (250 + 100) = 28.57%

Examples

1. Decimal Odds Example
• Odds: 3.50
• Stake: PHP 100
• Potential Payout: 100 × 3.50 = PHP 350
• Implied Probability: (1 / 3.50) × 100 = 28.57%
2. Fractional Odds Example
• Odds: 5/2
• Stake: PHP 100
• Potential Payout: 100 × (5/2) + 100 = PHP 350
• Implied Probability: (2 / (5 + 2)) × 100 = 28.57%
3. Moneyline Odds Example
• Odds: +250
• Stake: PHP 100
• Potential Payout: 100 × (250/100) + 100 = PHP 350
• Implied Probability: 100 / (250 + 100) = 28.57%

Underdog Analysis in Betting

Strategies for Betting on Underdogs

Betting on the underdog can be a rewarding strategy if approached with careful planning and informed decisions. Here are some tips and strategies specifically tailored for the Philippine context:

1. Conduct Thorough Research

• Know the Teams and Players: Familiarize yourself with the underdog team's strengths, weaknesses, and recent performance. Local knowledge can provide insights not readily available to international bettors.
• Analyze Statistics: Look into historical data, head-to-head matchups, and performance trends. Websites and sports analytics platforms can be useful.

2. Stay Updated with Local Sports News

• Follow Local Sports Media: Keep an eye on Philippine sports news, including injury reports, player transfers, and team dynamics. This information can significantly impact the odds and outcomes.
• Social Media and Forums: Engage in local sports communities on social media platforms and forums for insider information and opinions.

3. Look for Value Bets

• Identify Mispriced Odds: Bookmakers sometimes misjudge the true probability of an underdog winning. Look for instances where the underdog's chances are better than what the odds suggest.
• Bet Selectively: Focus on games where you believe the underdog has a realistic chance of winning, rather than betting on every underdog.

4. Understand the Sport

• Local Sports Expertise: Develop a deep understanding of popular Philippine sports like basketball (PBA), boxing, and collegiate leagues (UAAP, NCAA). This knowledge can help you identify potential upsets.
• Game Conditions: Consider factors like home advantage, weather conditions, and player form, which can influence the outcome.

5. Manage Your Bankroll Wisely

• Set a Budget: Allocate a specific amount for betting and stick to it. Avoid chasing losses by placing larger bets than you can afford.
• Bet Small: Given the lower probability of winning, place smaller bets on underdogs to minimize risk while still enjoying potential high returns.

6. Leverage Betting Promotions

• Take Advantage of Bonuses: Utilize promotions, bonuses, and free bets offered by local betting platforms. This can reduce your risk and increase your potential returns.
• Compare Odds: Shop around different bookmakers to find the best odds for your chosen underdog bets.

7. Stay Objective

• Avoid Emotional Betting: Don't let personal biases or emotional attachments influence your bets. Make decisions based on research and analysis.
• Be Disciplined: Stick to your betting strategy and avoid impulsive bets, especially after a losing streak.

8. Consider Different Bet Types

• Spread Betting: Instead of betting on a straight win, consider point spread bets where the underdog needs to cover the spread.
• Over/Under Bets: Betting on the total points scored in a game can sometimes offer better value, especially in unpredictable matchups.

9. Utilize Advanced Betting Strategies

• Hedge Bets: Place bets on both the favorite and the underdog in different ways to guarantee a profit or minimize losses regardless of the outcome.
• Arbitrage Betting: Take advantage of discrepancies in odds across different bookmakers to ensure a profit.

10. Review and Adjust Your Strategy

• Analyze Your Bets: Keep a record of your bets and review them regularly to understand what works and what doesn’t.
• Adapt to Changes: Be flexible and ready to adjust your strategy based on changes in the sports landscape, team dynamics, and betting market trends.

Underdog Betting in the Philippines

Sports betting is popular in the Philippines, with many bettors favoring underdog strategies. Jiligames, a prominent platform, offers a wide range of betting options, including underdog bets. Their user-friendly interface and competitive odds make it easier for Filipino bettors to engage in underdog betting effectively.

Conclusion

Betting on underdogs can be a thrilling and potentially rewarding strategy. However, it comes with higher risks and requires careful analysis and bankroll management. For bettors in the Philippines, platforms like Jiligames offer excellent resources and opportunities to explore underdog betting.